Global hashrate: why it is going up when it should be going down

The recent global hashrate spike in a bearish market and with margins becoming more competitive due to increased energy and difficulty with bitcoin not quite taking off again, is a major topic of debate. There is no certain science but we can analyze the market and the pools to validate what is happening

  1. Arrival of the S19XP Y M50 Series 140T range with 50% more hashrate than its predecessor and more efficient, although its current price is around $40/T it trades at double that of the S19pro it has 30% more efficiency which will allow it to cross the halving line in May 2024.
  2. Inertia still latent from the bullish market, a lot of infrastructure was under development after the financing and lending rounds held in 2021 and whose projects needed 6-10 months to execute.
  3. China resurrects hashrate masked under data center licenses and through VPN; here we see how high energy cost countries like Ireland and Germany have hashrate growth. The VPN misrepresents the actual geographic region of mining.
  4. Electricity tariff change to winter and falling temperatures. Many miners were having difficulties to operate with the high temperatures in Texas where the largest mining network is concentrated, if we add to this the curtailment due to the saturation of the network that left many more profits than the mining itself and with the highest power rates between the months of June and September, now is when they stop hibernating and return to the load.
  5. Efficiency improvements due to software development in equipment optimization. New firmware for miners to control overclocking to better performance frequencies.

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